Friday, September 12, 2014

The Ukrainian-Russian Gas Dispute

For those Americans who pay attention to the news, they have heard quite a bit about a gas dispute between Russia and Ukraine.  The dispute is actually quite serious.  It concerns payments to Russia for gas, and the two governments cannot agree on a price.  Russia is actually demanding artificially high fees.  In April, Russia raised the price of gas 81%, which Ukraine cannot afford to pay, and Putin knows this. 

I suspect most Americans are not aware that because a pricing agreement was not reached, Russia shut off the gas in June of this year.  It is important to note that Ukraine receives half of its necessary gas supplies from Russia. Ukraine is currently getting gas from Poland, Hungary, Slovakia and Moldova, but it will not be enough this winter.  Right now, besides the reverse gas flows, Ukraine is using its stored reserves, and they cannot last indefinitely. 

Putin is playing hardball...deadly hardball.  He is fully aware that Poland has been sharing its gas with Ukraine, so this week he reduced gas flow to Poland by 44%.  When Polish energy officials questioned the Russians regarding the sudden drop in gas supplies, Putin steadfastly denied the allegations, claiming that gas flow to Poland had not decreased at all (he is famous for also denying that Russian troops, tanks, rockets and weapons have crossed into Ukraine.).  Putin is drastically reducing gas flow to punish Poland for helping its long suffering next door neighbor.

If Russia, i.e., Putin, refuses to resume gas shipments, the results will be tragically devastating for Ukraine.  There is not enough gas for both industry and the citizens of Ukraine.  If Ukraine runs out of gas, the economy will be severely crippled and people will go without heat.  The last time Russia shut off the gas (Does anyone remember this?) people in Ukraine literally froze to death in their flats.  Ukraine is a northern European country (think North Dakota).  It is brutally cold and snowy here in the winter, so the stakes are quite high.

Winter is just around the corner, and unless Putin turns the gas back on, Ukraine is on a crash course toward utter disaster.  Without a doubt, Putin's goal is to bring Ukraine to its knees, and his strategy just might work.

1 comment:

  1. Update: I have learned recently that the government has been rationing gas in an attempt to build up badly needed stockpiles for the bitter winter months. Consequently, some large apartment buildings have already been without gas for weeks already.

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